In the heart of every NFL draft lies a mixture of hope, hype, and high-stakes projection. The Cowboys’ unrealistic expectations for their first-round picks have become a storyline that refuses to fade.

When the Dallas Cowboys selected Mazi Smith in the 2023 NFL Draft, they weren’t just investing in a player; they were investing in potential, in projection, and in a long-term anchor for their defensive line.

Two years in, however, that gamble has led to a renewed question: are the Cowboys’ unrealistic expectations for Smith setting both player and franchise up for disappointment

The Weight of First-Round Expectations

It’s important to begin by understanding the context. Mazi Smith was not just another pick; he was a top-tier athlete from the University of Michigan who topped Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List, A clear indicator of his raw physical capabilities.

Because of this, the Cowboys entered 2023 with confidence. Smith was expected to make an immediate impact. Nevertheless, it became apparent early in his rookie season that development would take longer than anticipated.

Although Smith boasted strength and athleticism, he struggled with fundamentals such as pad level, gap integrity, and quick get-offs. By the end of his first year, it was clear: the Cowboys had overestimated his NFL readiness.

But rather than temper expectations going forward, the team doubled down, parting ways with veteran Johnathan Hankins and thrusting Smith into a starting role for 2024.

Cowboys’ Unrealistic Expectations in Second Year

Despite a more focused offseason and a larger role in 2024, Smith’s performance again failed to meet expectations. While he showed flashes of improvement, his overall production still placed him among the lowest-graded interior defensive linemen in the league.

In addition to continued struggles against the run, he remained ineffective in creating interior pressure, something the Cowboys sorely needed. Naturally, this has led to an ongoing debate: why are the expectations still so high?

To answer this, we must examine the Cowboys’ internal narrative. Smith’s draft pedigree continues to influence how the team views him. Rather than being assessed strictly on merit, he’s still viewed through the lens of what he was supposed to be.

Although his results haven’t aligned with his projections, the Cowboys appear committed to the idea that he can eventually develop into a reliable starter. Yet, the evidence suggests otherwise. Still, Smith is being positioned once again as a starter for 2025.

Evaluating the Risks of Inflated Expectations

So, what makes this situation so tricky? First, setting high expectations for a developing player can stifle progress rather than promote it.

If the bar remains out of reach, no matter how much progress is made, the perception remains negative. Smith has improved, just not to the degree the Cowboys want.

Second, the narrative around a player is difficult to reset once it’s written. While fans and analysts might adjust their expectations based on performance, organizations often cling to original projections for too long.

As a result, the player is stuck battling not just opponents on the field but the weight of past hype.

This brings us to 2025. Realistically, Smith needs to become an average starter. No one is expecting him to turn into a Pro Bowler overnight. Nevertheless, that “average” bar, based on his past two seasons, still feels lofty.

Once again, we find ourselves asking if the Cowboys’ unrealistic expectations will again cloud proper evaluation.

How the Cowboys Can Reset the Narrative

To move forward productively, the Cowboys’ unrealistic expectations must begin by recalibrating their internal assessment model. One effective method is embracing performance-based metrics over draft status.

Additionally, setting realistic and tiered goals, such as improved snap reaction, gap discipline, or even rotational dominance, can offer more meaningful growth indicators.

Moreover, communication with fans and media is crucial. By publicly framing Smith’s role as developmental rather than dominant, the team can ease external pressure and allow for progress without the shadow of disappointment.

A shift in how they present expectations could redefine how players are evaluated and supported.

Expert Editorial comment

Ultimately, the Cowboys’ unrealistic expectations reflect a broader organizational challenge: balancing hope with reality. While belief in a player’s potential is necessary, so is the willingness to reassess based on results.

For Mazi Smith, 2025 will be a defining season not just in terms of performance, but in how expectations are managed around him. By recalibrating expectations, the Cowboys can better support player development, improve team depth, and finally close the gap between potential and production.